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Re: Stateof Origin

Posted by Pete van Meurs on Feb 16, 2012; 10:06am
URL: http://oldforum.flyshooter.com.au/Stateof-Origin-tp4887543p5489057.html

Hi All,

Although  Les and Anthony have thrown in their support for my proposal I would like to toss in some stats to help convince any doubters out there.

I will use last years Fed Cup as my model -

Down to 70th place - NSW 35 shooters for 46 entries (11 doubles)
                                         - Vic    5 shooters for 10 entries (all doubles)
                                         - neither ACT or QLD had enough shooters or did not rank well enough to matter in this model.

Top 20   - NSW -  10 shooters (13 entries - ie 3x double)
                  - Vic   -   2 shooters  (4 entries - both double)

This is probably starting to confuse some of you but please read on.

Best case scenario (3 different shooters with their best result if double entered) -
                   NSW  -  741.09
                     Vic  -  708.09
                                                     Margin to NSW  33.00 points
Worst case scenario (3 different shooters and ALL the state's shooters that were double entered having chosen, by pre-nomination, what turned out to be their worst result) -
                   NSW  -  735.07
                    Vic   -  678.05
                                                      Margin to NSW  57.02 points

Notice how NSW, with it's big field, only suffered a 6 point difference between best and worst case compared to Vic's whopping 30 point difference.

For any State/Territory to have a fair crack at this it is essential that their limited entry numbers be given the chance to offset the NSW numerical advantage by allowing a double-entered contestant's best result.

Anyway, it's virtually locked in on the 'Best Result' version but I just wanted to offer any doubters a bit of an explanation.

Pete