Re: Stateof Origin
Posted by Pete van Meurs on Feb 16, 2012; 10:06am
URL: http://oldforum.flyshooter.com.au/Stateof-Origin-tp4887543p5489057.html
Hi All,
Although Les and Anthony have thrown in their support for my proposal I would like to toss in some stats to help convince any doubters out there.
I will use last years Fed Cup as my model -
Down to 70th place - NSW 35 shooters for 46 entries (11 doubles)
- Vic 5 shooters for 10 entries (all doubles)
- neither ACT or QLD had enough shooters or did not rank well enough to matter in this model.
Top 20 - NSW - 10 shooters (13 entries - ie 3x double)
- Vic - 2 shooters (4 entries - both double)
This is probably starting to confuse some of you but please read on.
Best case scenario (3 different shooters with their best result if double entered) -
NSW - 741.09
Vic - 708.09
Margin to NSW 33.00 points
Worst case scenario (3 different shooters and ALL the state's shooters that were double entered having chosen, by pre-nomination, what turned out to be their worst result) -
NSW - 735.07
Vic - 678.05
Margin to NSW 57.02 points
Notice how NSW, with it's big field, only suffered a 6 point difference between best and worst case compared to Vic's whopping 30 point difference.
For any State/Territory to have a fair crack at this it is essential that their limited entry numbers be given the chance to offset the NSW numerical advantage by allowing a double-entered contestant's best result.
Anyway, it's virtually locked in on the 'Best Result' version but I just wanted to offer any doubters a bit of an explanation.
Pete